Will France's election winner go into opposition?
July 21, 2024
Just a few days after his 74th birthday, the election of communist Andre Chassaigne as National Assembly president would have been considered among the crowning achievements of his career. The left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) — comprised of socialists, communists, greens and the far-left party France Unbowed (LFI) — had unexpectedly nominated the provincial politician as their joint candidate for the country's fourth highest state office.
But after Thursday's vote, the New Popular Front, the surprise winner of the snap parliamentary elections called by President Emmanuel Macron at the beginning of July, remains empty-handed. In the decisive third round of voting, the previous parliamentary president Yael Braun-Pivet received 13 more votes than Chassaigne, shattering his chance to become the first communist parliamentary president in French history.
More than a representative officer
The complicated process of finding a majority in the newly elected National Assembly will determine the coming months for French politics. Because Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance of parties lacks even a relative majority with 163 MPs (absolute majority: 289 MPs), the president will have to govern along with his political opponent, shifting some of the power from Elysee Palace to the National Assembly. Personnel decisions will now be fraught.
The role of parliamentary president entails not only representative duties, but also the chairing of debates and the ability to refer controversial bills to the Constitutional Council. That body is also influenced by the parliamentary president, who appoints one member, along with three members of the judicial supervisory authority. With Braun-Pivet, a confidante of Macron will continue to occupy this important parliamentary position in the coming years — despite her party being punished in the elections.
Becoming ungovernable
With three political blocs of almost equal size now in parliament — and no experience in forming coalitions — France is considered by many observers to be ungovernable. The New Popular Front has the most members in the National Assembly, closely followed by Macron's centrist Ensemble party alliance and the far-right National Rally (RN), which is allied with parts of The Republicans (LR), a conservative party. An agreement with the other parts of the LR was enough for Macron's group to secure Braun-Pivet's triumph.
Following further personnel votes in parliament on Friday, the focus is now on electing the new head of government. Whereas the role of prime minister has previously involved the translation of presidential will into practical policy, it will now carry more decisive power as the republic orients toward the parliament.
Who will be the new head of government?
When appointing a new prime minister, the president must take into account the balance of power in parliament, but is not bound by any deadlines. Macron could wait until the end of the Olympic Games — even if that means the resigned government of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is only allowed to manage day-to-day business.
As the strongest alliance in parliament, the New Popular Front has been seeking a prime minister within its ranks since election night. This week, left-wing economist Laurence Tubiana was chosen as their candidate. Tubiana has a good relationship with Macron and made a name for herself as the chief French architect of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. But France Unbound, the strongest faction of the New Popular Front, is calling for a candidate of their own instead. Macron is unlikely to hand over power to a divided left-wing party, however.
Macron's calculation could work
Instead, the center-right alliance of conservatives and the president's supporters could soon agree on concrete plans for the coming months. For Macron, this would have the advantage that key achievements from his term of office, such as the pension reform, would remain untouched by right-wing populists and the Popular Front, which aim to reverse them.
It remains to be seen who the president will appoint as prime minister in this coalition. The new leader of the conservative party, Laurent Wauquiez, has categorically ruled out a head of government from the conservative ranks, as well as a regular coalition based on the German model. With its relative majority of votes, the center-right alliance could nevertheless push important legislation through parliament. As long as the RN and Popular Front do not join forces on votes.
What will become of the RN?
The National Rally is keeping a low profile for the time being, but Marine Le Pen's party can also be seen as an election winner. With over 10 million votes, it was able to attract more support than the Popular Front or the presidential camp. The fact that the RN is still only the third strongest force in parliament is due to the majority voting system and the so-called Republican Front, in which all other parties have joined forces against the RN. The firewall against the RN remains in place, at least symbolically, even after the vote. Many politicians even demonstratively refused to shake hands with a young RN member of the electoral commission.
Despite such posturing, the far-right party is no longer as isolated as it once was. Recently, it was revealed that representatives of the presidential camp already held talks with Le Pen months ago. In a strengthened parliament, the party may well have an interest in not immediately toppling a center-right government through a vote of no confidence. Leaving the left-wing Popular Front to stew in opposition without influence is likely to be a tempting prospect for Le Pen and RN party leader Jordan Bardella.
Outwardly, however, the left has taken a combative stance after the painful defeat in parliament. Quoting the founder of the Republic, Charles de Gaulle, leader of The Greens, Marine Tondelier, said: "We have lost a battle, but not the war."
This article was originally written in German.