Will Thailand's upcoming elections see a political shift?

Thailand is preparing for general elections that could provide an opportunity for opponents of the ruling junta after Thailand's king dissolved parliament on Monday.

A date has not been set, but a general election must take place within 60 days after parliament has been dissolved. 

Since 2014, Thailand has been led by former army officer Prayut Chan-ocha, who seized power in a military coup, and hung on as prime minister in a coalition government with the the pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party [PPRP] after a much-criticized 2019 general election.

Prayut losing popularity?

However, in recent years, Thailand has faced political unrest and economic woes, while the kingdom's monarchy has been challenged. The prime minister's popularity has faded.

Prayut's main political opponent, the Pheu Thai Party, who are against military rule, continue to lead in preliminary election polls. The party's leading candidate is Paethongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

A new coalition for Thailand?

Ken Mathis Lohatepanont a political science scholar at the University of Michigan, told DW the results of the election could see a coalition of opposing parties.

"It is possible that government and opposition parties that were previously opposed to each other, namely Palang Pracharath and Pheu Thai, could join together in coalition," Lohatepanont said.

"Prawit Wongsuwan, who leads the PPRP, has been trying to re-cast himself as a champion of democracy, which would facilitate such a deal with the opposition."

However, despite the popularity of Pheu Thai, the party and the Shinawatras have been long unpopular with the monarchy and wealthy Thais.

Sean Boonpracong, a former national security adviser in Thailand, said it's too early to tell which way voters will go.

"We've got 60 days, a lot of things can happen. Thais are anxious to vote in this election," he told DW.

He added that polls show voter turnout is expected to be higher compared with the last general election in 2019.  

Economy, youth vote in focus

Thailand's economy is the key political issue due to the country facing increasing living costs and a consistently high household debt. This has prompted political candidates to promise higher wages, better jobs, and subsidies as part of their election campaigns. Economic growth in the kingdom for 2022 was only 2.8%, and forecasts for 2023 show that Thailand will see another slow year, according to the Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

Wasinee Pabuprapap, a Thai journalist, told DW it is also important for young voters to have a say in the Thailand's future.

The younger generation "feel freer when they have the opportunity to cast votes," she said, adding that the military's hold on political power has disenchanted the country's youth.

"Young people think this might be the chance and the platform for a civil government," she said.

She believes street protests may erupt if the junta supporters win the vote. However, she added military influence in Thailand's Parliament has been reduced, and a transition to loosen Prayut and the military regime from power was coming.

"Even if Prayut becomes  prime minister, he has to negotiate a lot as a politician, he won't go back to the military regime. It will be a transition, it will be a very small step," she said.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn