Congo-Rwanda cease-fire: A lasting peace effort?

After two and a half years of fighting and several broken agreements, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have put a temporary halt in the conflict between the Congolese army and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebellion in eastern Congo's North Kivu province.

M23 rebels launched the offensive in the mineral-rich region at the end of 2021. Since then, they have seized large swathes of territory in an effort to gain a share of North Kivu's major deposits of copper, gold and diamonds.

Angola, which has been mediating to resolve the conflict, announced the peace deal on Tuesday after talks in Luanda, adding that the truce would come into effect from midnight on Sunday. 

Uganda and Kenya have previously been involved in mediating peace talks between the warring parties.

Troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) were last year deployed to eastern Congo to neutralize the M23 rebel group — but they struggled to restore peace and security to the restive region.

'Hypocrisy' in the mediation process

The fresh deal comes as a humanitarian truce between the M23 rebels and government forces obtained through the United States was due to expire on August 3.

However, analysts are sceptic about the new deal because previous truces inked by both countries were never respected for more than a few weeks.

Justine Masika, an activist living in the province of North Kivu, believes that there is too much hypocrisy in these various mediation processes. She told DW that the parties involved in the conflict have too many interests and the well-being of the population is not their priority.

"The truce has been declared, but the problem we still have in this conflict in eastern DRC is that the parties to the conflict don't respect the agreements they've signed."

"There are still papers that are signed but they continue the war and the population continues to die every day."

The UN estimates that fighting in North Kivu province has displaced more than 1.7 million people, driving up the number displaced in Congo by multiple conflicts to a record 7.2 million.

A UN Security Council report revealed that 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers have been fighting alongside the M23, indicating that Kigali exercises "de facto control" over the group's operations.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame has not explicitly denied the presence of Rwandan forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, he has openly stated his readiness to take a "defensive" stance to protect Rwanda's interests.

Political scientist Christian Moleka believes that, like many peace initiatives, this one is limited by the fact that there are not enough elements of pressure that can be exerted on Rwanda.

"By tacitly signing the ceasefire agreement, Rwanda is presenting itself as a co-belligerent, because only those involved in a military operation can sign a ceasefire. So its signature confirms the fact that Rwanda is a player on the ground," he said.

However, Moleka said this signature is not binding on the M23.

"As much as Rwanda can sign the ceasefire, the M23 can disassociate itself from it, especially as the Luanda process does not include the M23 in its dynamics," he said, adding that Nairobi was the second mechanism offering the M23 a political way out.

Angola's president hailed as 'champion of peace'

Although some are sceptical on the new agreement, Angolan President Joao Lourenco is being referred to as the 'Champion of Peace' in this conflict.

Soy Komba, an Angolan specialist in international relations, told DW that Angola has been playing the role of mediation in a very intelligent way.

"The conflict between these two countries also affects Angola, because we have a very large territorial border with the DRC," Komba said. "If instability persists, there is also a disadvantage for our country, because refugees from this conflict can also cross the border into Angola."

He emphasized that the potential influx of refugees from the conflict into Angola has been a key motivator for the Angolan president’s active mediation efforts.

Augustin Muhesi, who teaches political science in eastern Congo, is optimistic but cautious about the new truce, which he said was the result of the diplomatic ballet in the region.

"People who have been at loggerheads for a long time won't return to good feelings in a day, but it's already a process that presents analogies but also breaks with what may have happened," Muhesi told DW.

Cease-fires welcomed by the West

Former colonial power Belgium has welcomed the cease-fire agreed between both countries but urged all sides to stick to the deal. 

In a statement, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib thanked "Angola for its crucial role, and encouraged the parties to uphold their commitments."

"This step is essential to ease the suffering of the population and lead to a resolution of the conflict in Eastern DRC," he added.

France, the European Union, and the United States hailed the signing of the latest agreement on Wednesday.

"We hope this agreement will help create the conditions for de-escalation of tensions between the DRC and Rwanda and enable the safe return of those internally displaced to their homes," said Stephane Dujarric, the spokesperson for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

Eastern Congo has been racked by fighting for 30 years, involving both local and foreign-based armed groups, tracing back to the regional wars of the 1990s.

Antonio Cascais contributed to this article

Edited by: Keith Walker

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