With Move Forward dissolved, what's next for Thai democracy?

Thailand's Constitutional Court on Wednesday voted unanimously to dissolve the opposition Move Forward, the pro-reform party that won the most votes in last year's election. 

"While the ruling is not a surprise, it is not good for democracy," Punchada Sirivunnabood, an associate professor of political science at Thailand's Mahidol University, told DW.

The court ruled in favor of the Election Commission's petition that Move Forward had attempted to overthrow the monarchy by pledging to reform the lese majeste law, which shields the Thai royal family from criticism.

"It serves as a grim reminder that the legacy of the May 2014 coup remains alive and well," said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

Despite winning the most seats in the election, Move Forward's leader Pita Limjaroenrat was blocked from becoming prime minister by the rubber-stamp Senate, whose members were hand-picked by the former military junta.

Now, Pita and 10 other party leaders have been banned from participating in politics for a decade.

The decision is "a further sign that the establishment will never give up power in Thailand willingly," said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Lese majeste not going anywhere

The decision is in line with a verdict that came six months ago, when the same court ordered Move Forward to drop all its activities aimed at amending the royal defamation law, known as Article 112.

"The ruling on January 31 drew a clear line that parties should not overstep. Today, Move Forward has been made an example of for crossing that line," said Napon.

The Thai monarchy is enshrined in the constitution, with the king in a position of "revered worship." Any perceived criticism of the royal family is punishable by up to 15 years in prison per offense.

Move Forward campaigned on a pledge to scale back the lese majeste law, with reduced jail terms and a requirement that a complaint be filed by the Royal Household Bureau.

"Pushing for lese majeste amendments is not off limits but attempts from now on will be much more low-key and toned down in parliament," Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, told DW.

History of party dissolutions

Political parties being dissolved and reincarnated under a new banner is not rare in Thailand.

"The judicial system has been weaponized to support the elites and has been for some time," Kurlantzick said.

The ruling Pheu Thai, for instance, is the successor to People's Power, which evolved from Thai Rak Thai, a party established by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup in 2006.

Since then, 34 parties have been dissolved, including Move Forward, which is expected to re-emerge as a new faction in the coming days.

"Dissolving political parties should not become something normal in a society," said Punchada.

Will there be street protests?

In 2020, the Constitutional Court disbanded Move Forward's predecessor Future Forward over a campaign funding violation and barred its leaders from politics for 10 years.

The dissolution triggered nationwide youth-led protests calling for the resignation of the general-turned-prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and reform of the monarchy.

But analysts say that such large-scale demonstrations are unlikely this time around after authorities launched a legal crackdown against protest leaders.

"Even those adversely affected by today's outcome may be reluctant to take to the streets with their grievances," said Napon, as many protest participants in the past have ended up "being targeted by lawsuits and jailed."

At least 1,954 people have been prosecuted for participating in political assemblies since the start of protests in July 2020, with at least 272 charged with lese majeste, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.

The lawyer Arnon Nampa, for example, one of the leaders of the 2020-2021 youth-led protests, is currently serving 14 years in prison.

"The dissent will be expressed during the next election and not on the streets," said Napon.

Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee said she hoped for such an outcome as "it would be more beneficial to Move Forward and Thailand long term."

What's next for Thai democracy?

Analysts believe that the reform movement in Thailand will continue in some form.

"The ruling is a preventative measure to put an end to monarchy reform and I think the movement will disappear for some time but it will not die out, it is just anesthetized for now," said Siripan.

But Punchada said that the case against the 44 Move Forward MPs who signed the proposal to amend the royal defamation law could change that.

If found guilty by the anti-graft agency, this group of legislators, which includes former Move Forward leader Pita, could face a lifetime political ban.

"Despite two elections since 2019, Thailand is nowhere near democratic. If anything, it remains authoritarian," said Napon.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru